A year after the crisis is going on with most estimates of its costs with certainty. And precise estimates are impossible, because real estate values \u200b\u200band the collapse of the mortgage loans continue to be loss protest . According to Bridgewater Associates in Westport, Connecticut, can get other 1.6 trillion dollars of losses on a global level, half from corporate debt and half from immobility, and not just subprime
The Fed had used more than two thirds of investment securities of approximately $ 800 billion to provide liquidity . The ECB was even more generous, but with a different policy. The inflation risk is very strong in the U.S.. The muzzle of the raw materials weighing the anticipation of U.S. inflation. The junction Ben Bernanke (pictured)
is tight: if rates up worsens the situation of variable mortgages, if you keep them below zero (real rates) generates inflation. The free movement of capital could be at risk. The crisis could lead to a return to excessive regulation. As long as fiscal policies will not do their part to those leaving money can really fight inflation, increase the risk that protectionist sentiment is reinforced. Recessions are too long do not help the free trade agreement.
The credit crisis will force banks to devalue their assets (mostly bonds built on home mortgages and other loans), to hundreds of billions of dollars. Any failure of companies like Fannie Mae (or just investment banks and commercial) would trigger a domino effect uncontrollable.
The credit crisis will be exacerbated by deterioration in the housing market: declining home prices and rising interest on adjustable rate mortgages, delinquencies are increasing families. This in turn decreases the ability of consumer spending and the prospect of a recession, so far avoided, could reappearance.
The picture is complicated by rising inflation (5% in the U.S. and over 4% in the euro area) due to increased raw material prices. Beyond the consequences for the economy and corporate profits, investors demand a premium for the higher risks. This bag in translates into lower prices and a cost of money growth.
From ilsole24ore.com
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